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Baseline and forecast

Every plan has two states: as it was approved and as it looks today. The first is the baseline, the second is the forecast. The difference between them is how far the project is behind or ahead.

The baseline

A baseline is a snapshot of the dates agreed with the customer or management. It is recorded once, when the plan is approved, and not changed afterwards without a separate decision.

Without a baseline, slippage is invisible. If dates are simply edited as the project goes, three months later the plan is always “on track” while the project is a quarter late.

The forecast

The forecast is the dates that follow from where things stand now: what is done, what is late, how estimates and dependencies have changed. It is recalculated every time the plan changes.

Variance

Schedule variance is the gap between the forecast and the baseline date. It is best counted in working days and read at three levels:

  1. Work — which tasks moved and by how much.
  2. Milestones and goals — did the pilot, the release or the acceptance move.
  3. Project — how much later the whole project will end.

A slip on a task does not always mean a slip of the project: if the task has float, the end date stays. That is why variance is best read together with the critical path.

Why milestones moved

It helps not only to see the slip but to explain it. For every milestone that moved, it is worth knowing which chain of work moved it: a late delivery, new work, a changed estimate. Then the status meeting is about causes and responses, not about “why are we late again”.

When to change the baseline

The baseline changes when the agreement on dates changes: the customer approved a new scope or a new date. Don’t re-record it every time the plan drifts from reality — otherwise it stops doing its job.

Where to do it

In Etapero a project’s baseline is recorded once and the forecast is recalculated on every change. Variance shows on the rows of the plan, on the Gantt chart and on the goals timeline, where each milestone’s baseline date stands next to its forecast.